Lurker > Suprak the Stud

Yall need to rewatch Hercules if you dont get tanges reference.

Im too busy with RDR2 at the moment, sadly. No free time. Maybe next game though as Ill have more free time in December!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eddv posted...

HanOfTheNekos posted...

Rural Ohio swung big for Trump, but there are plenty of suburban Republicans who hate him (but of course voted him for taxes).

Ohio is gerrymandered to shit, but winnable if dems can take a chunk out of rural/suburban right-leaners.

On that note, rural Ohioans might not figure out that Trump hasn't done anything for them for a decade or so, so they're probably not the correct Avenue to pursue.

Well I think it's notable that blue collar liberal Sherrod Brown won with ease and Liberal Financial Sector Executive Cordray lost.

I think the group up for grabs therefore is suburban blue collar types in the burbs

Ohio is so far gone compared to eight or so other flippable states that it isn't worth spending much time on imho. Sherrod Brown was an incumbent and fits for Ohio very well, so if he is the nominee, sure, go for it. But Cordray lost fairly easily for an open seat and underperformed basically every other governor race.

It isn't worth the money when there are other states that are much better options to flip. Going for Ohio in 2020 will be like Clinton going for Georgia in 2016. Best you're going to get is "close-ish" and you're going to lose other states you should've been focusing on more. If Dems win Ohio, it is a landslide anyway so it doesn't matter. It isn't close to a tipping point state.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

xp1337 posted...

Jakyl25 posted...

OMG. Bumping the topic to keep it from purging

Are politics done?!

i have reached the next level

i had a dream yesterday where i was arguing in this topic that ohio had gone red and shouldn't be considered a real swing state going forward

so why bother posting here in reality

I actually 100% agree with your dream self! Democrats should abandon Ohio in the near future.

Total number of counties swung this election: 0. The state is badly gerrymandered, sure, but democrats didn't win the popular vote in the state either.

Governorship went to Republicans, fairly easily. Neither candidate was exceptional, and this was essentially generic R vs generic D. In a year when democrats won governorships in Wisconsin, Nevada, Michigan, and KANSAS, they lost Ohio by 4 points. They were closer in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, and South Dakota. Dems flipped the senate seat in Arizona (and now have 5 in the house compared to 4 for republicans). Out of all the results for democrats this election, the three that stand out the worst and the two in Florida and the Ohio governorship.

I actually thought early on in the night it was going to be terrible for democrats. But they did great almost everywhere, in local and statewide elections. Better than they should've, basically everywhere. Out of every governor race, the two that did the worst were Hubbel (from IA who was going against a fairly popular incumbent) and Cordray (who was going for an open seat).

https://twitter.com/perrybaconjr/status/1063076005445799936

They won the senate race easily, but Brown is a moderate, popular incumbent. Unless democrats plan on running him and only him, I would abandon Ohio in 2020 to focus on...like 8 other states first.

Top tier targets: MI, WI, PA
Next tier: AZ, IA, FL, NC
Hail Mary territory: GA, NE second
Crazy town dream land: OH, TX (Trump won Ohio by 8.13. He won Texas by 8.99. You could actually make an argument TX is a better target than OH this election. But both of these are wastes of time!)

So, yeah. I've been thinking about this a lot since election night. I think Ohio is going the way of Missouri. It isn't quite there yet, but it is slipping and I don't see much hope of it being a true swing state. At this point, if a dem wins Ohio it is a landslide.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Post election hangover. No more politics until 2020.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Mobilezoid posted...

I read that the ending would have originally implied that they were still stuck in the red room but the director decided he liked the characters too much so they were given a happier ending.

Yeah, I read the same thing. The changed the original because they felt it was too depressing.

Which is a shame because it is HOT GARBAGE but the first 9 and a half episodes were some of the best tv in recent memory. Like episodes 4-7 or so were phenomenal.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

NowItsAngeTime posted...

TexasZea posted...

NowItsAngeTime posted...

All these years later I still have no idea where The Plan comes from.

Then you are lost

I know there are things the Board 8 Council are not telling me.

From my point of view, The Plan is evil!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

UltimaterializerX posted...

https://www.dailycaller.com/2018/11/15/rick-scott-campaign-gained-votes-florida

Are Rick Scott's hands really that large? WTF

HAHAHAHAHAHA

How has this not been brought up before? How am I just learning about this now?

He looks like if Slenderman gave up his day job and decided to pursue accounting.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

My fiancee just sent me this link in a text lol

Trump Warns Flu Shots Are The Greatest Scam In Medical History
https://wisemindhealthybody.com/wmhb/trump-warns-flu-shots-scam/

I don't know what these HATERS are talking about. The link is "wise mind healthy body dot com" so you know it has to be good.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Cohen went down first.

The investigation led to him pleading guilty on August 21, 2018, to eight counts of campaign finance violations, tax fraud, and bank fraud. In his statement before the court, Cohen said he violated campaign finance laws "in coordination with and at the direction of a candidate for federal office," meaning Trump, "for the principal purpose of influencing the election" for president in 2016.

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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Kenri posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

Could really use some rain here in CA...!

Those giant "PRAY FOR RAIN" signs on the 99 will kick in any day now!

Everyone knows that won't work.

Gotta send them thoughts as well.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

No worries! Makes sense you weren't looking closely, because I think Ocasio-Cortez is probably the most recognizable face to come out of the elections.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Jakyl25 posted...

LordoftheMorons posted...

No idea, but there are definitely far left white men in Congress (like, say, Bernie)

To be fair, I think she was using Congress to just mean The House

They're also all some of the biggest stories to come out of election night, if you felt like being extra generous!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Ocasio-Cortez isn't Native American, is she?
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

I would argue that Jim abandoning her for long periods of time and forcing her to raise their kid alone while he pursued some "dream" of his he had never mentioned, while investing 10k of their savings (which was all of it), and somehow being oblivious to her sadness was worse than anything Roy ever did.

He was sort of a lazy boyfriend during season 2, but never abusive. The worst he did was tell Pam he didn't think it was worth it going to art school. Which, by the way, she dropped out of the moment she ran into difficulty. She seemed pretty happy with him for most of season 2 tbqh.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Fuck Jim. Roy is a way better character.

What a terrible, asinine hot take.

Not better in terms of humor or importance to the show.

But better in terms of being a "good" human being. You know I'm right.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

If they don't do it now, they never will.

They're calling for the second civil war and telling each other to load up on ammo. I don't *quite* know what reddit's exact policy is for banning subreddits, but I feel like this sort of thing has to be up there.

Pretty certain they already should be banned going by policy. They probably never will be until some real life horrific incident is tied to an /r/t_d post.

I lurk there a lot and I never really saw anything that I would consider ban worthy.

This, however, is totally different. There are a ton of posts with a lot of upvotes that are borderline advocating violence and sedition. Not just over Florida, but Arizona, Montana, Michigan, West Virginia...they don't believe any election results and want Trump to do something about it. I've seen maybe 100 posts in the past hour talking about civil war.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Corrik posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

TheRock1525 posted...

Btw watching The_Donald meltdown over Sinema winning is the fucking best.

Mass. Hysteria.

I was waiting for this announcement just so I could bask in it. They're calling for a civil war, shrieking at McSally for not fighting, calling Ducey a cuck and a RINO who clearly was in on it.

I have never seen them this upset.

Maybe they will finally shut that cesspool down.

If they don't do it now, they never will.

They're calling for the second civil war and telling each other to load up on ammo. I don't *quite* know what reddit's exact policy is for banning subreddits, but I feel like this sort of thing has to be up there.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

John McCain getting some loud applause at the Sinema victory speech.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

TheRock1525 posted...

Btw watching The_Donald meltdown over Sinema winning is the fucking best.

Mass. Hysteria.

I was waiting for this announcement just so I could bask in it. They're calling for a civil war, shrieking at McSally for not fighting, calling Ducey a cuck and a RINO who clearly was in on it.

I have never seen them this upset.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yep. "Clearly interested" might be an understatement!

The issue is going to be how liberal are democrats going to want to go? I think the two elections this year (governor/senate) probably is really good evidence they need a moderate to run as Arizona is definitely purple at best right now and definitely not blue. You can also argue Sinema is a complete aberration because of how perfect of a candidate she was for the state, but I think demographic changes (and votes in the last senate election and presidential election) indicate that it might not just be due to Sinema.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Something semi-interesting is that the seat McSally left to run was on the short list targeted by Democrats for a potential pickup, and the seat Sinema left to run was on the short list targeted by Republicans for a potential pickup.

Democrats held onto Sinema's seat and flipped McSally's. The won the house popular vote in the state as well.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eddv posted...

Sinema winning is huge there.

Arizonans - is there someone else who can defeat McSally for Syls seat?

(Not from Arizona but I've been following very closely)

I'll post later, but Sinema is a uniquely extraordinary candidate that did everything right to somehow beat the very best candidate the republicans could find. Like, McSally is a war hero and has zero blemishes anywhere and Sinema still beat her. There aren't any Sinema's kicking around anymore, which is a problem.

Demographics are changing, but I think it would be a mistake to go too far left in two years just yet. Garcia, who ran as a progressive, just his teeth knocked in, while Sinema who campaigned as an independent moderate managed to win. Someone who is *potentially* interesting that I saw brought up a lot in tweets (and who is clearly interested) is this guy:

https://twitter.com/GrantWoods?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Former republican attorney general who changed party affiliations and endorsed Sinema. He is not as young or dynamic as Sinema but definitely has that appeal to independents that helped Sinema win. I'll let locals chime in if there are any other big names in the wings, but I hadn't seen any.

Then again, I wouldn't have predicted Sinema being as good as a candidate as she was two years ago. So who knows.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

LordoftheMorons posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

But yeah, I get your point. I'd rather take Arizona and Nevada than any of those three I listed but I can see the argument the other way around. You need a really good candidate to hold onto a red state, and they weren't that.

Like Tester...!

Please don't make me write another ode to the man, the myth, the legend that is Jon Tester. Because I'll do it.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Well, McCaskill and Donnelly were only in those seats in the first place due to tremendous mistakes made by the GOP.

You don't just have a "legitimate rape" Akin drop into your laps every election.

But yeah, I get your point. I'd rather take Arizona and Nevada than any of those three I listed but I can see the argument the other way around. You need a really good candidate to hold onto a red state, and they weren't that.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Ahem.

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

Genuinely did not think we'd get this one! I have more thoughts I'll post later since I've been following this and reading up on Sinema/McSally like crazy, but this is a great pickup.

Arizona + Nevada are so much easier to defend than Missouri/Indiana/North Dakota. Like if we could've held on to Florida, you would 1000% take that trade. This won't be an uphill battle to defend in six years for either of those.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Whoops never mind.

https://twitter.com/MarthaMcSally/status/1062144676822577152

Classy move!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1062143663835353089

AP called it. Don't think McSally has conceded yet though.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Maricopa added 18.6k, so they still have...a lot out there. Roughly 145k or so. They only have two days left to do this so hopefully tomorrow is a huge drop!

Sinema gained 2k votes and now leads by 38,197. Maricopa went to Sinema by +3 on Election Day but +11 in this batch, similar to the numbers she's been pulling down from all mail ins before this.

There are only 174k total ballots left. I can do some quick calculations later tonight when they update final outstanding ballots but...McSally needs a double miracle at this point. Some places might start calling it today, even.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Well then.

MARICOPA INCOMING.

(Two smaller counties posted but I won't do those as a compromise to Tony and also because they weren't tremendously interesting)
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Trump invades, demolishes the entire county, and builds a country club over it.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

FINE

I'll stop posting updates if it is annoying.

You guys can go back about yelling at each other about who can and cannot be responded to.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Tony is a veteran! I know that for sure.

Ulti is a veterinarian. Just more proof VETS>vets suck it Ulti

I used to enjoy FFD's yearly "hey I'm going to try and get as much free food as I can today watch out" summaries, but sadly he has disappeared off the board.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

No idea what you guys are talking about.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Nevermind they are only updating 19k of the outstanding ballots in Maricopa. AMAZING holiday and love our troops and country. It is frustrating that the ballots aren't coming in at the rate I'd like, but I would like to emphasize that this holiday is wonderful and anyone who says otherwise is a filthy commie.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Really good Pima numbers just dropped and Sinema is up almost 36k now. Still like 20k outstanding from Pima too. Race might be called depending on Maricopa in roughly 15 minutes.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yeah, understandable, but the guy I just posted has this listed in his Twitter bio:

State Election Director for Arizona Secretary of State; election law attorney; former U. S. Army infantry officer and Iraq War veteran

So I'm just going to trust he knows what he's talking about until I see someone saying otherwise! Even then, I'd probably trust the election director for the Arizona SoS. Like if he's wrong here he should be fired.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ChichiriMuyo posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

Arizona elections only go into recounts when the vote count is fewer than 200 votes or 0.001% of the total, whichever is lower. So McSally would need to make up significant ground to even force a recount.

That's only for automatic recounts. McSally could sue for a recount and potentially get it.

https://twitter.com/Eric_Spencer/status/1062035219681697792
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Pinal, Pima, and Maricopa should all be dropping today. Pinal and Pima should be most of the rest of their non-provisional votes. Maricopa will likely have one more day after today.

We should know which way the race is going within the next four hours!
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Arizona elections only go into recounts when the vote count is fewer than 200 votes or 0.001% of the total, whichever is lower. So McSally would need to make up significant ground to even force a recount.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

You are the Toby of this topic.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Yes I've watched The Office in the background while working or playing a handheld game roughly 15 times through and I have strong opinions on Jim, the true asshole of the show.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Jim is also acting manager for a day - ONE DAMN DAY - and tries to change the entire office birthday policy by cramming six birthdays into one day without consulting anyone about it. Michael doesn't get fired or go on vacation - he heads out of the office for one day with Dwight (he's actually back the same day) and Jim tries to force a major policy change on the entire office because of how much time birthday celebrations waste.

The same dude who organized an Office Olympics where people put boxes of paper on their feet and tried to walk. The same dude the spent who knows how long wrapping air in the shape of the desk so Dwight would fall. This dude is now "oh no more birthdays get to work peons" the second he gets a sniff of power.

Fuck Jim. Roy is a way better character.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

ExThaNemesis posted...

Like I guess we could categorize Jim as a bully .

Jim is 100% more of an asshole than Michael.

-Essentially psychologically tortures Dwight for years because he finds Dwight mildly annoying. Some of the stuff he does is absolutely bonkers insane. He writes an entire fake book about garden parties on the off chance Dwight buys it on Amazon. Do you know how long that must take? He tricks Dwight into thinking he had a walk on role on a tv show, which costs Dwight who knows how much in air fare to California and hotel fees. He gas lights Dwight into thinking he's been Asian for his entire life, going as far to get a friend of theirs to kiss his own wife just for the sake of making Dwight feel like he's going crazy for a couple of hours. He does stuff like this for years and Dwight hardly ever fights back.

-He's profoundly shitty to the women he dates. He essentially strings along Katy and Karen only as long as his infatuation with Pam will let him. He has Karen move to Scranton and then dumps her just to be with Pam. "True love" and all of that, but if you look at it from their perspectives it is an incredibly awful thing to do. Katy he basically ignores and treats her like she is some drooling idiot because she likes Legally Blonde and was a cheerleader. Karen clearly has strong feelings for Jim, and Jim dumps her the moment Pam winks at him.

-His thing for Pam in early seasons goes way beyond a normal crush. Like, he's a stalker. Pam is engaged to someone else, but this dude basically stalks her. She put hot sauce on her hot dog by accident a couple years ago...so he kept the other packets to give to her for Christmas? That's bonkers. He's hoarding her garbage. If Jim looked like Dwight, Pam would get a restraining order.

-Ignores Pam's wishes and starts his own business without asking her about it, then is basically oblivious about it for half a season as Pam sobs to the production guys. This is way worse than what Roy did and we were supposed to root against Roy in the early seasons.

-He's a bully to Kevin in the episode where they make the Cookie Monster video. Kevin is clearly bothered by it but Jim keeps doing the Cookie Monster voice right in front of his face. Worst part is unlike Michael or Packer who poke fun at Kevin's weight, jim is supposed to be his friend.

Jim is an asshole to everyone the entire show, and we let him get away with it because he's attractive. We all think we're the jim at our work, but we're not. We'd be the oscar - someone just trying to do their job while the idiot two desks over is wrapping someone's desk in wrapping paper and lazily goofing around at reception ten minutes later.

Oh and I forgot the most annoying thing of all. Multiple times in the show he steals someone else's mug and tries to make them feel bad about him using it. Imagine if the weird guy at work took your mug and started drinking out of it because he was too damn lazy to bring his own. Darrell has every reason to be mad you lazy bastard, you don't even wash your dishes.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Paratroopa1 posted...

Suprak the Stud posted...

YAVAPAI WITH A SURPRISE BATCH AFTER THEY WERE SUPPOSEDLY DONE!

McSally gains a whopping 123 votes. It went +8 McSally after going +24 on Election Day. Now they're double done. Probably.

smh republican counties always finding more surprise votes out of nowhere.

why is our president not outraged about the republicans obviously trying to steal this election in arizona

I cannot think of a reason why he would not speak up about this

Don't they care about election integrity?!? These votes just came out of nowhere!

SEND IN THE MARINES
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

YAVAPAI WITH A SURPRISE BATCH AFTER THEY WERE SUPPOSEDLY DONE!

McSally gains a whopping 123 votes. It went +8 McSally after going +24 on Election Day. Now they're double done. Probably.

smh republican counties always finding more surprise votes out of nowhere.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Arizona SoS is likely heading to a recount, yeah.

McSally needs a huge Maricopa showing tomorrow. Otherwise I think pretty much all the major outlets will call it.

5 PM MST. BE THERE BE THERE BE THERE
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Eh make that +15 to +20. She only has 162k left and they have been doing 80k a day outside of today, so if they're reporting half of their remaining votes she really needs to see huge movement tomorrow.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1061794284427329537

More back of the envelope math!

219.8k outstanding with biggest outstanding votes from
Maricopa - 162k
Pima - 36.3k
Pinal - 14.7k
Coconino - 4.8k
everywhere else only has a couple hundred votes

Sinema currently has a lead of 32,392. McSally's campaign keeps saying the rest of the Maricopa votes will favor her because they group their votes differently and most of the remaining are late "early" votes.

Assuming the other counties play out like Election Day (which would be favorable to McSally since most of these updates trended Sinema).
Gain of 1794 in Pinal for McSally (8056 for McSally and 6262 for Sinema)
Gain of 5191 in Pima for Sinema (20364 for Sinema and 15173 for McSally)
Gain of 1311 in Coconino for Sinema (2981 for Sinema and 1670 for McSally)

So outside counties should favor Sinema to the tune of 4708 votes. I'll subtract 100 or so for McSally due to some extra votes she'll get from the rural counties.

Sinema would have a lead of 37k going into Maricopa with 162k remaining. That means the final votes would need to break down 62.5k for Sinema and 99.5k for McSally or 61.4% to 38.6% in her favor. This +22.8 would be a huge shift from the -3 on Election Day.

Again, possible, but the next update needs to go in McSally's favor by at least +10 or so to have any hope.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

Pinal added roughly 7k or their remaining 21k votes. McSally only cut the lead by 350 or so votes. It went +14 McSally on election night but only +5 in this update.

Getting close...if Sinema even keeps in even in the next Maricopa batch, I think outlets will call it.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."

35.6k new votes and Sinema expanded her lead by 2,224 votes.

I was hoping for a 80k or so vote to really put things away but there is probably still a little too much outstanding to call things. But only 227k or so ballots left outstanding.
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Moops?
"I thought you were making up diseases? That's spontaneous dental hydroplosion."